1 Price Level That Proves Your Trade Thesis Is Dead

We are analyzing the market’s TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) stance on Iran, deciding if the Disney rebound is a trap or a buy, and why glass is king for NVDA and Corning — Profit Panel starts at 2:30 PM ET

 

People ask me all the time: What’s your profit target on trades?

Here’s the truth — I don’t set percentage-based targets on options. And I think you shouldn’t either.

The reason is simple. If you tell yourself you want 100% on an option, you’ll probably hold past 96% waiting for that last few percent. Then the market turns and suddenly you’re sitting at 20%. That’s the emotional trap percentages create, and it’s exactly why I avoid them.

I walked through this on a recent show because it’s one of the most common mistakes I see — and one of the easiest to fix. The fix isn’t to guess at a better percentage. It’s to stop using percentages altogether and let the chart tell you when to exit.

Let the Chart Set Your Exit

Instead of profit percentages, I use price levels on the chart to manage trades. That way, my decision isn’t emotional — it’s structural.

These levels aren’t random. I build them by looking at three things working together: price action, volume shelves and, when relevant, option flow.

For example, if a stock has a clear support shelf created by heavy volume at a certain level, that becomes a meaningful line in the sand. Price structure sets the level, volume confirms it and market flows often reinforce it.

When all three line up, that level deserves respect.

I emphasize that combining option flows with chart structure makes the chosen exit levels more powerful than using either alone.

Take a stock like Applied Digital (APLD) as an example. If APLD drops below 38, the trade is done. That number wasn’t chosen just because it looked good — multiple structural cues pointed right at it.

There’s a broader floor down around 35, but the stronger, more immediate volume floor sits closer to 38. Price action, the volume profile and positioning in the options market all came together at that level, making it a clean and logical place to cut the trade.

Your P&L doesn’t matter if the chart no longer supports the trade. Don’t worry about the specific winner percentage on your option. Worry about whether price is still respecting the structure that justified your entry.

A Simple Rule You Can Copy

Here’s the rhythm I stick to: before I enter any trade, I mark the price level that would prove me wrong. Not a percentage. A price.

If we’re above that level at the close, I stay in. If we close below it, I’m out — no second-guessing, no hoping for a bounce.

Because when you start hoping, that’s when you say things like “I’ll exit at 100%”, skip your exit at 96% and then watch your position collapse to 20%. Price-level exits shut that down.

This isn’t about being right every time. It’s about being disciplined every time.

Alex’s Three-Phase Analysis:

  1. Mark support and resistance through price action
  2. Confirm the level with the volume profile
  3. Validate with option flow

When all three agree, the level becomes the disciplined place to exit.

This approach is especially clean on Friday expirations because the clock forces the decision. Either the level holds or it doesn’t. If it doesn’t, you cut and move on.

Mark your line. Respect your line. Let the chart do the rest.

👉 Click here to join Profit Panel at 2:30 p.m. ET on weekdays!

To better trading,

Alex Reid
WealthPin

Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!

Important Note: No one from the WealthPin team will ever contact you directly on Telegram.

*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

P.S. The AlphaFlow Dashboard Has Compiled the Top Options Setups for May

The last time we had setups like these fall right in our lap, we were able to make away with more than 10 winning double, even triple-digit signals.

Now I want to hand you the newest trade setups at no cost.

Get the Details Right Here

Disclaimer: The profits and performance shown are not based on any sort of typicality for any one individual as there are no live tracked alerts associated with the system. We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading, past performance is not indicative to future results. We make no future earnings claims, and you may lose money. The gains referenced were live options setups based on the Alpha Flow Dashboard signals.

More Resources from Wealthpin