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Wednesday, September 24th
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“They muddy the water, to make it seem deep.”
– Friedrich Nietzsche
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Home-based traders are filtering out noise zeroing in on the highest-probability setups with THIS tool!
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Major Market Events
- Lithium Surge on U.S. Stake Talks — Lithium Americas nearly doubled as Washington eyes a stake in the key battery supplier
- Fed Signals AI’s Hiring Impact — Powell suggested AI could weigh on jobs, even as inflation risks remain elevated
- Copper Jumps After Freeport Warning — Freeport-McMoRan warns it can’t meet all deliveries after issues at its Indonesia mine
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🤔 My Thoughts
When Corporate Buybacks Go Quiet
Why Markets Feels Shakier (and How to Trade It)
You’ve probably heard the term “buyback blackout.” Here’s the plain-English version and how to handle it.
But first, why did we talk about this on yesterday’s show?
Public companies often pause their share repurchases in the weeks before they report earnings. That window is called the buyback blackout.
When buybacks pause, one of the steady buyers of stock steps away. With that bid gone, price swings can widen and intraday pops are more likely to fade by the close.
You don’t need to fear that. You just need to adjust for it.
What To Watch
- End-of-day closes over intraday wiggles. During blackout weeks, put more weight on what happens by the closing bell. If price can’t close above a key level, treat mid-day spikes as noise.
- Position size. Keep size small on new ideas. If the next day confirms the move with another good close, you can add.
- Defined risk. If you’re using options, favor spreads so you limit your max loss on day one. For shares, be willing to scale in on pullbacks rather than buy breakouts during thin liquidity.
A Simple Plan
- Wait for a close back above an obvious level (recent resistance or a short moving average)
- If it holds the next day, take a nibble, not a whole bite
- Set exits before your enter — profit targets and a line you won’t let price close back below
- If price action doesn’t confirm, do nothing. Cash is a position.
Bottom line: when buybacks go quiet, the market can shake more. Don’t guess. Wait for proof at the closes, use defined-risk trades, keep size sensible, and only press when the signals line up.
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To Better Trading,
Alex Reid
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