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Friday, August 29th
“All media exist to invest our lives with artificial perception and arbitrary values.”
– Marshall McLuhan
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Markets Today
🌏 Asia-Pacific: Mixed
🇪🇺 Europe: Down
🇺🇸 United States: Down
🛢️ Oil: Down
⚡ Crypto: Down
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Another Trump announcement could send markets into chaos.
And this strategy is ready
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Major Market Events
- Core PCE hits highest since February — The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose 2.9% year-over-year, matching expectations and shaping September rate-cut bets
- Wall Street trades flat after inflation data — Stocks hover as investors digest PCE and look ahead to Fed’s September meeting
- Brazil vows tariff retaliation — Brazil says it will respond after Trump’s new duties on imports, escalating trade tensions
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🤔 My Thoughts
What I’m watching after the NVDA “Nothing Burger”
one key ticker I’ll trade with tight risk
Wednesday after market close told an interesting story. NVIDIA’s report didn’t break the tape, and option buyers on both sides felt the burn.
When the move is smaller than the options market priced in, implied volatility collapses and premiums get crushed.
That’s why even calls or puts with the “right idea” can still lose on earnings day — which is what happened when NVDA didn’t “move enough” to make options pay out.
So where do I look next?
On yesterday’s show we walked through a cleaner lane: AMD. Here’s the logic, in plain English:
- NVIDIA’s China sales are tied up in export rules. They sold zero H20 chips there.
- Cambricon, the Chinese chipmaker, has grabbed a big chunk of China’s AI market while U.S. parts are limited.
- AMD’s new MI650 class chip is competitive on performance.
- As Jeffry Turnmire said on the show, “AMD may be the better opportunity.” And I think he’s right: I don’t need that to be a moonshot. I just need a setup I can control.
My simple, defined risk plan
Path A — Small debit call spread.
I buy a near-the-money call 2-6 weeks out and sell a higher strike in the same expiry. That lowers the cost and caps the risk at the debit I pay.
If AMD grinds higher, the spread expands. If it stalls, my loss is limited and known from the start.
How I manage it (my standard rules):
- Tiny size. One spread is fine.
- Base-hit target. If I’m up meaningfully (about a quarter to a third of the debit), I take it.
- Hard line. If price backs off and the spread value shrinks to my pain line, I’m out. No “hope.”
Path B — Starter shares + covered calls.
If you prefer shares of the stock, you can start small and sell an out-of-the-money call against your shares for the next weekly expiry.
That brings in cash while you wait. If price pops through your call, great — take the win or roll it. If it chops, you still got paid.
Why this makes sense to me
I’m not betting against NVIDIA. I’m reacting to the setup: after an IV crush, I don’t force trades into a flat tape.
I rotate to where the risk/reward looks clearer and I can keep the downside tight. Today, that’s AMD with a defined-risk structure and simple rules.
Semis are noisy. Headlines hit. That’s fine. I size small, take fast paydays, and cut early when the picture changes. No hero trades.
We’re back at it this morning with more under-the-radar ideas and easy-to-follow plans:
Click here to watch the on-demand replay!
And don’t forget to register your spot here to join us next time we go live!
To Better Trading,
Alex Reid
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