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Tuesday, August 5th

“We live in a world where there is more and more information, and less and less meaning.”

– Jean Baudrillard

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Markets Today

🌏 Asia-Pacific: Up

🇪🇺 Europe: Up

🇺🇸 United States: Up

🛢️ Oil: Down

⚡Crypto: Mixed

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Major Market Events 

• Trump eyes 250% pharma, chips tariffs — Duties on drug and semiconductor imports could begin next week
• Palantir surges after earnings — Company reports its first ever $1 billion quarter
• White House targets banks over crypto discrimination — Pending executive order could reshape financial policy for crypto firms and politically aligned businesses

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🤔 My Thoughts

Is anything even real anymore?

GDP? Fake. Jobs report? Fake. Markets? Still going up.

 

I don’t usually start these with a philosophical crisis — but after this week’s show, I kinda have to.

Last week, GDP came in at 3%. Which sounds good… until you look under the hood.

As I explained on yesterday’s the show, GDP is one of the weirdest metrics we still pretend is meaningful. The whole formula is just:

C + I + G + (X – M)

That last part — exports minus imports — is where the real distortion kicks in.

If imports drop (which they did), GDP goes up. Not because we’re producing more — just because we bought less from overseas.

It’s an accounting trick that makes the economy look stronger than it really is.

Meanwhile, consumer spending barely moved (just 1.4% growth), and business investment was down too.

So yeah… 3% on paper. But it’s propped up by weaker imports and falling investment — not exactly a sign of healthy, organic growth.

So what’s actually driving that “growth” number?

Less importing. Not more production. Not stronger demand. Just fewer containers coming into U.S. ports — which happens to boost GDP because of how the formula’s written.

I mean… come on.

But then we get the jobs report. 35,000 new jobs. For a country of 350 million.

That’s bad on its own — but it gets even weirder when Trump chimes in saying the job numbers were rigged.

And look, I’m not here to pick a side.

But I will say this: if the numbers are fake, that’s bad.

If the numbers aren’t fake… that’s also bad.

Because either the data’s garbage — or the economy is.

And yet…

Somehow, the market just shrugs it all off and keeps climbing.

And Chris Pulver nailed it with this line:

“The markets have never been real. It’s never the real economy.”

Geof Smith even joked about how they released the July jobs report the morning after the month ended — as if a team of BLS interns stayed up all night crunching numbers:

“I want to know who stayed up all night… crunching them and throwing them out”

It’s wild out here.

But that’s exactly why we keep showing up.

Because yeah — the system’s weird. Maybe even rigged.

But if you know how to read the signals, block out the noise, and catch the market in one of these fake-out moments… That’s where the edge is.

We’re doing it again this morning live — right now.

Click here to watch the on-demand replay!

And don’t forget to register your spot here to join us next time we go live!

To Better Trading,

Alex Reid

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