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Friday, October 17th
“The map is not the territory.”
– Alfred Korzybski
Major Market Events
- Tariff Fears Ease — As Trump calls tariff China tariffs “not sustainable”, softer tone cools trade-war risk
- Consumer Stress Signals — Rising auto-loan delinquencies and gloomier shoppers threaten holiday spending
- Gold’s Big Week — Bullion on track for strongest weekly gain since 2020
🤔 My Thoughts
Credit-Spread Wednesday: The Finale
how I closed the loop on Wednesday’s spreads
Yesterday I walked you through the mid-week credit spreads I placed live on Profit Panel two days ago, showing you how I managed the COST spread that didn’t behave. Today we close the loop.
First, the outcomes:
I closed the AMD and NVDA put-credit spreads as winners and called the week two-for-three.
That’s a 66% win rate in a jumpy tape — and exactly how this routine is supposed to look. Short-dated premium doesn’t need stocks to move massively in your direction.
AMD stayed essentially flat after entry, NVDA drifted up and away from our short puts, and time decay (theta) quietly did the rest of the work.
The outlier was our COST trade.
At the open, price dropped quickly. And as soon as it sat between both strikes — that’s my “line in the sand” — I decided to close it out at a slight loss.
I don’t “wait and see” on a high-priced name when we’re sitting between the short and long put; I work the exit with a limit, nudging toward the marketable price to get out quickly without taking the worst fill.
Not perfect, but disciplined. The goal isn’t to be right on every ticker, it’s to keep losses capped and free up capital for other opportunities.
A quick reminder of why this works:
- Flat is a win when you sell short-dated premium. If price holds above your short put, time decay chips away at the spread.
- Distance + duration beat bravado. On Wednesday I pick strikes far enough below price to keep the probabilities on our side and set them for Friday — just two days away — so time decay acts quickly.
- Pre-staged exits keep emotions out. I use GTC targets on winners and a clear “line in the sand” for losers. When price violates the plan, I don’t renegotiate with myself, I act.
So yes — two winners, one managed off the field.
That’s real life with credit spreads. It’s all about consistency: cap the losses, let time work, and live to place the next good trade.
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To Better Trading,
Alex Reid
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