Alex Reid has been giving away free picks from his new scanner.
And now he’s giving away the entire scanner at no cost!
Monday, October 20th
“Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.”
– T. S. Eliot
Major Market Events
- Stocks Climb On China Talks, Earnings — Risk appetite firms up as dialogue improves and earnings results queue up
- Amazon Aws Outage Disrupts Key Platforms — Cloud issues hit apps and brokers, adding operational risk
- Shutdown Deadlines Intensify — Standoff becomes third-longest, raising policy uncertainty
🤔 My Thoughts
Shutdown Odds, Trade Bias, and Why I’m Standing Down on Minerals (For Now)
Odds Over Opinions: My Plan into Month-End
I don’t trade headlines, I trade what those headlines do to odds.
On Friday’s Profit Panel, I pulled up the Polymarket prediction-market read on the government shutdown and saw something important: the market expects a long one.
I summarized it this way on-air: it’s tracking to be the longest shutdown, and the odds suggest we’ll be dealing with it through the end of the month. From a trading standpoint, that changes my bias in a few corners of the market.
One example we discussed: U.S.-listed “minerals” names that have been volatile on every policy ripple.
I told viewers I’m not looking to go long those tickers right now. I specifically flagged MP and LAC as names I am avoiding on the long side in this backdrop.
I even noted that LAC could plausibly revisit the $5 area — over 30% down from current prices — if the tape stays sloppy. It’s not a doomsday call, it’s just me aligning my risk with the path the prediction market is implying.
So what do I do instead?
- Keep sizing modest. A prolonged shutdown path tends to widen ranges and stretch intraday moves. Smaller positions keep me rational.
- Favor clearer leadership elsewhere. When I scanned, chips looked comparatively sturdier. I checked Intel in real time and observed it holding up while much of the market chopped.
- Use structures that cap risk. If I engage at all around a noisy policy tape, I stick to defined-risk trades with pre-staged exits.
- Respect the clock. In a week where one post can yank futures, I let time and distance do more of the work and I don’t hesitate to flatten into planned levels.
The big idea is simple: the odds moved, so my bias moved. I’m not shorting the world, and I’m not saying the shutdown “must” drag on.
I’m saying the weight of evidence today argues for caution in specific high-beta corners (like the minerals names we called out), and for putting capital where the relative strength actually is.
That’s how I’ll run it until the odds change: keep risk small, avoid the land mines, and hunt the pockets that refuse to go down.
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To Better Trading,
Alex Reid
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