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Thursday, February 20th
It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.
-Mark Twain
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Markets Today
🌏 Asia-Pacific: Down
🇪🇺 Europe: Down
🇺🇸 United States: Down
🛢️ Oil: Down
⚡Crypto: Up
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Major Market Events
- China’s Alibaba sees revenue surge on back of artificial intelligence, e-commerce
- Fed’s Bostic expects two rate cuts in 2025, but sees widespread uncertainty
- Carvana pulls back from monster rally after earnings
🤔 My Thoughts
Amazingly, at least for a short time, crypto is doing what it was originally promised to do – be uncorrelated with stocks.
While the market is taking a bruising, crypto is still climbing, and Bitcoin is flirting with that key $100k mark again.
It remains to be seen if this will keep up through a real crash (we’re betting no) but it is a glimmer of hope that crypto can be a real hedge and separate asset class in terms of performance, instead of moving in lockstep with big tech.
So why is the market getting beat up?
Well a big factor is Walmart earnings.
As of today, February 20, 2025, Walmart stock is experiencing a significant decline following the release of its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings for 2025.
Despite reporting better-than-expected results—revenue rose 5.3% year-over-year to $182.6 billion and adjusted earnings per share increased 10% to $0.66, both surpassing Wall Street
estimates—the stock is down sharply. Premarket trading saw it drop around 5% to 8%, and shortly after the market opened, shares were down approximately 6%.
The primary reason for this sell-off appears to be Walmart’s cautious guidance for fiscal 2026. The company projected slower profit growth, with earnings per share expected to be as much as 27 cents below analyst projections for the year and up to 7 cents below estimates for the first quarter.
This conservative outlook, coupled with mentions of uncertainties related to consumer behavior, global economic conditions, and potential tariff impacts from President Trump’s policies, has spooked investors.
Sell Walmart and buy Bitcoin? A risky and volatile trade, but one that would have done amazingly well for investors over the last 5 years.
