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Tuesday, September 16th
“Some people never go crazy. What truly horrible lives they must lead.”
– Charles Bukowski
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Alex Reid’s #1 Momentum tool is sitting at an 87% success rate… And it’s just started flashing “BUY” on one ticker!
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Major Market Events
- Fed Meeting in Focus — Investors eye one of the most closely followed Fed meetings in years; rates and central bank independence in spotlight
- Stocks Hold Stead Pre-Fed — U.S. equities paused near record highs as Wall Street waits for the Fed’s rate announcement
- Retail Sales Surprise — Government data showed retail sales in August rose more than forecast, while July’s growth was revised higher
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🤔 My Thoughts
Housing Emergency? Here’s What You Need To Know
Trending down is nice. Affordability is the lever.
On the latest Profit Panel, Chris Pulverfloated a bold one: declare a national “housing emergency,” fast-track new supply, and give builders targeted help.
If Washington actually pushes that button, the story is simple: more supply — and faster.
That could loosen the logjam that’s kept buyers sidelined and builders cautious. It could also shift the timeline on permits and starts, bringing demand and supply back toward balance sooner than markets expect.
Here’s my lane: I don’t trade the press conference; I trade the proof.
And the first proof point isn’t the headline mortgage rate — it’s the monthly payment buyers see when they run the numbers. If a starter home weighs in at $4k/month, buyers freeze.
But when payments cool into a sane range, deals happen, and the builder tape stops bleeding.
What I’m eyeing before I make a move:
- Price action first. I want builder names/ETFs closing back above key moving averages — and holding.
- Flow confirmation. Options flow turning supportive while price stabilizes = alignment. If flow shrugs, I wait.
- Defined-risk structures. Vertical spreads or selling premium with room to be wrong. No hero trades.
What could happen if policy comes to the rescue:
- Faster approvals + clearer incentives could pull forward starts and visibility, which is a tailwind for builders.
- Materials/labor bottlenecks won’t vanish overnight, so I’ll still require the tape to confirm.
- Volatility pockets around announcements are noise unless closes and flow agree.
What I won’t do is front-run legislation or fade strength because “rates are still high.” I need to see charts plus flow or I pass.
Bottom line
Chris’s “housing emergency” idea is a real swing at the supply problem. My trigger is simpler: when payments calm down, price and flow will tell us first. That’s when I’ll lean into builders — with defined risk and zero heroics.
Click here to watch the on-demand replay!
And don’t forget to register your spot here to join us next time we go live!
To Better Trading,
Alex Reid
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