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Wednesday, September 17th

“The happiness of your life depends upon the quality of your thoughts.”

– Marcus Aurelius

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This tool now lets home-based traders filter out noise
and zero in on the highest-probability setups!

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Major Market Events 

• Fed Cut Debate Heats Up — The Fed is expected to deliver its first rate cut of 2025 this week, but internal divisions remain over whether to ease faster or slower
• China Tells Firms to Avoid Nvidia Chips — Beijing’s regulators have ordered tech companies not to buy Nvidia’s newest AI hardware, intensifying U.S.-China tech frictions
• Lyft & Waymo Join Forces, StubHub Goes Public — Rideshare app Lyft and Alphabet/Google’s Waymo announced a robotaxi partnership while StubHub made its public debut in one of the year’s hottest IPOs

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🤔 My Thoughts

Fed Day in Plain English: My 2-Step Plan to Avoid the Whipsaw

Mark the range. Wait for the close.

 

Rates may cut. Or not. The market can rally on either. It can also drop on either.

That’s why I don’t trade the headline. I trade the proof.

Here’s the simple, big-picture way I’m handling the decision.

Why The Same Decision Can Cause Opposite Moves

Traders don’t react to the words. They react to what those words imply about growth and inflation.

A cut can say “support is coming” (bullish).
It can also say “things are slowing” (bearish).
Same with no-cut. It can read “staying patient” or “behind the curve.”
Point is: the spin moves faster than your keyboard.

My 2-step plan (works for cut or no-cut)

Step 1: Mark today’s range.
High. Low. Write it down. That’s your arena.

Step 2: Wait for the close.
I only act on a closing break out of that range. Not a wobble. Not a pop.
No “hero” trades on the first headline. The first move is often bait.

What I’ll use to confirm

• Moving averages. Back above the lines and holding = buyers in control.
• Options flow. If flow turns supportive into the close, that’s alignment.
  If price breaks but flow shrugs, I wait. Process over prediction.

Where the desk stands (clean attribution)

We covered both branches on yesterday’s show:

• Jeffry Turnmire came in hedged for a no-cut with defined risk.
• Jack Carter said a no-cut wouldn’t surprise him.
  My base case leans to a small cut as bullish, but my actions still come from the tape, not my opinion.

How I’ll express it (if signals line up)

• Defined risk only. Vertical spreads to cap risk.
• Size small. It’s an event day. Surprises happen.
• No front-running. The close is the tell.

What I won’t do

• Chase the first spike.
• Fade strength just because “rates are high.”
• Trade the press conference instead of the close.

Bottom line: Cut or no-cut, I’ll mark the range and wait for the close.

If price and flow confirm, I’ll take the shot — small, defined, repeatable.
If not, I keep my chips. Discipline beats hot takes.

Click here to watch the on-demand replay!

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To Better Trading,

Alex Reid

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