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Tuesday, September 9th

“We are each our own devil, and we make this world our hell.”

– Oscar Wilde

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This tool now lets home-based traders filter out noise and zero in on the highest-probability setups!

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Major Market Events 

• Jobs Data Revised Lower — BLS cut March payrolls by 911,000, signaling a weaker labor market than earlier thought
• Aplpe Event on Deck — Tech giant expected to unveil thinner iPhone lineup and upgrades to AirPods and other devices
• Oil Stalls, Markets Digest — Crude oil steadies as stocks rally after job markdown shifts focus to Fed and growth outlook

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🤔 My Thoughts

When the Market Gets “Boring” at Highs, I Pay Attention

Why a slow tape near the top can be a real tell

 

Some days the market feels stuck. Lately, that’s how the S&P has felt.

Here’s what I’m seeing in plain English.

We keep bumping our head near a big round level. The team pointed to heavy positioning around 6,500 on SPX.

Think of it like a ceiling made of open option contracts. Until price can get through it and stay there, rallies tend to fizzle.

At the same time, the equal-weight S&P (ticker: RSP) still isn’t at new highs. That tells me the big names are doing most of the lifting while the average stock lags.

When the index is at the top and most stocks aren’t, the tape often goes quiet. It looks like “nothing is happening,” but that quiet can be important.

What usually comes next? One of two simple paths:

Path A: The break and go.

If we finally push through the ceiling and price holds above it, you often see a clean follow-through. That’s a sign the crowd is willing to pay up and the cap came off.

Path B: The stall and drift.

If we tag the ceiling and back away again, the market often chops or fades a bit while money looks for new homes. Sometimes you see a small pullback. Sometimes you see a slow rotation as other groups pick up the slack.

I don’t guess which path we’ll get. I let price tell me. Here’s how I keep it simple:

• Watch the level. If we clear it and stay above it, I respect the move.
• If we reject it again, I don’t force trend trades. I keep size small, take base hits, and wait for a better pitch.
• Reports like PPI and CPI are just background for me. I wait to see if price actually moves and holds a level. If the chart doesn’t back it up, I don’t take the trade just because of a headline.

Bottom line: “Boring at highs” isn’t a yawn. It’s the market compressing near a lid. When that lid breaks—or holds—you usually get a clearer road. Until then, patience is the edge.

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To Better Trading,

Alex Reid

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