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I’ve been tracking something unusual, and it’s not coming from CNBC or your broker’s research desk.
I’m talking about open source intelligence — the kind you can pull from X, aka Twitter, if you follow the right accounts — and what I’m seeing has me taking a small, speculative position on United States Oil (USO).
Here’s the setup: We’re moving a massive amount of military equipment into forward deploying bases in the Middle East.
Refueling tanker planes and moving troops.. the kind of activity you don’t do unless something is about to happen.
It’s the same pattern we saw with Venezuela when we moved equipment right off the coast — you don’t make moves like that unless something is coming.
And if you remember the summer strike on Iran’s nuclear facility, Trump went quiet for weeks, then we struck out of nowhere.
I don’t trade on rumors. But I do trade on patterns, and this pattern has my attention.
If we strike Iran, oil supply gets disrupted so USO is going to move fast. So I’m taking a small hedge — a Hail Mary play, not a core position — using out-of-the-money (OTM) call spreads.
What I’m Seeing in the Flow
USO has been showing steady accumulation for days, and it’s been moving up since Jan. 16.
When I look at the options flow, I’m seeing something I call a call wall…
When you see multiple strikes lighting up across different expirations, it’s a good signal.
That’s not a single trader making a bet. That’s positioning across contracts, and it creates gamma pressure that can push prices higher if buyers stay engaged.
The trade I’m looking at? The $76-$77 call spread for Feb. 20 at around 17 to 18 cents.
It gives me time for the story to develop without betting the farm. If nothing happens, I lose pennies. If we see action, this thing could pop like nobody’s business.
One member of our group shared intelligence suggesting a strike could happen by Jan. 31. I can’t verify that, but the troop movement is real and the flow is real.
That’s enough for me to take a small, defined risk.
How I’m Managing This
Let me be clear: This is not a high-conviction trade. It’s a hedge.
A speculative play based on observable military movements and historical playbook.
I’m treating this as insurance, not a core position, and I’m sizing it accordingly.
If you decide to follow along, don’t go ham on this.
Keep it small. Keep it defined.
And understand that the reason I’m taking it is pattern recognition, not certainty.
Trump used the same playbook with Venezuela and the first Iranian strikes — quiet and then sudden action.
If that repeats, USO moves. If it doesn’t, we’re out a few bucks.
I’ll be walking through more setups like this — where open-source intelligence meets flow data and chart structure — on the next Profit Panel. If you’re not joining live, you’re missing the real-time decision-making that turns observation into action.
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To better trading,
Alex Reid
WealthPin
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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