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Fragile ceasefires. Bitcoin spikes. ‘Tesla killer’ options flow. The liquidity tides are turning. We’re moving past the speculation and looking at the mathematical probability of today’s volatility [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
Major market events make for great headlines, but they don’t always change the underlying story…
I’ve been working through how to think about industrial metals right now, especially aluminum, and I keep coming back to the same conclusion: The short-term noise doesn’t override the bigger shift already underway.
And that shift is what matters.
The Reshoring Thesis Stays Intact
Regardless of geopolitical tensions or whether shipping lanes reopen tomorrow, the fundamentals haven’t changed.
America is reshoring. We’re re-industrializing. The consultant email jobs? They’re going away — those workers are becoming machinists. That’s not a headline, it’s a structural transformation.
This multi-year shift creates durable demand for industrial metals like aluminum, copper, and steel. It doesn’t reverse because a crisis cools off. In fact, it reinforces the need for more capacity, more production, and more building.
That’s why I keep leaning into setups tied to this theme. When I say aluminum looks strong, I’m not talking about a short-term bounce.
I’m thinking about the long haul. And the long haul looks even better than most people realize.
Managing the Timeframe, Not the Thesis
Short-term reactions can still get messy. Even I can’t tell you exactly how aluminum would respond if something like the Strait of Hormuz suddenly reopened.
Markets can whip around on headlines that don’t actually change the real trajectory.
That’s where structure matters. I’m using spreads because they help in case things do sell off.
Traders may assume everything is going back to normal — but even though it may look that way for a moment, it isn’t.
Spreads give me cushion on timing without forcing me to abandon the thesis. They keep me positioned for the long-term move while absorbing the short-term noise.
I’m managing around the volatility, not redefining the outlook.
Size carefully, manage risk intelligently, and stay aligned with the bigger trend — that’s the approach that keeps conviction intact when headlines get loud.
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To better trading,
Alex Reid
WealthPin
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