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Thursday, July 31st
“now it’s computers and more computers
and soon everybody will have one,
3-year-olds will have computers
and everybody will know everything
about everybody else
long before they meet them.
nobody will want to meet anybody
else ever again
and everybody will be
a recluse
like I am now.”
-Charles Bukowski
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Markets Today
🌏 Asia-Pacific: Down
🇪🇺 Europe: Down
🇺🇸 United States: Up
🛢️ Oil: Down
⚡Crypto: Up
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Could this be the most powerful “BUY” signal available?
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Major Market Events
- S&P 500 Futures Rise — Microsoft and Meta earnings topped expectations, lifting sentiment as traders brace for Apple results and Trump’s tariff deadline
- Core Inflation Reignites Fed Debate — the PCE index shows prices heating up again, challenging hopes for rate cuts anytime soon
- Trump Tariff Drama Returns — new deals with South Korea and Cambodia aim to blunt criticism, but uncertainty over his Aug. 1 deadline rattles markets
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🤔 My Thoughts
The Most Boring 1,000% Trade I’ve Seen
a “lottery ticket” trade for the next big bond move
It’s a long shot — but the math checks out
We didn’t do a regular Profit Panel yesterday — but we did pull off something way bigger.
It was a special Fed Day roundtable on Opening Playbook… and the amount of high-level trading insight packed into that session was wild.
One idea in particular stuck with me — and it came from Nate Tucci.
Now to be clear, Nate wasn’t making a bold prediction. In fact, he explicitly said the market could go either direction from here.
But what he did do was walk through how he’s thinking about the next 18 months — and how he’s setting up a specific trade in case the crowd is wrong about interest rates.
It’s a trade on TLT — the long-term Treasury bond ETF — and it’s what Nate called “the most boring 1,000% ROI trade” he could think of.
And yeah… it’s kind of brilliant.
Here’s the setup:
Buy to open the Jan ‘27 $105 TLT call
Sell to open the Jan ‘27 $110 TLT call
Total debit: $0.37
That’s a $5-wide vertical call spread on TLT — meaning, if TLT climbs back above $110 before January 2027, the spread pays $5. That’s $4.63 of potential profit on a 37-cent entry.
That’s 1,251% ROI if it works — but Nate’s quick to point out:
“Hopefully I don’t need to tell anyone that a thousand percent ROI trade is not a likely… it’s not a very probable trade.”
And he’s right. This is not a base-hit. It’s a lottery ticket.
But it’s one he’s willing to carry in his back pocket.
Here’s why:
If you think Trump wins and replaces Powell with a more aggressive dove…
If you think rate cuts come faster than the market expects…
If you think bonds have more upside than anyone’s pricing in right now…
Then this is one way to play that.
If you’re wrong? You lose $37 per contract. That’s it. Defined risk.
But if you’re right — and long bonds come roaring back?
You could turn a sliver of capital into something much bigger.
And maybe most importantly: This idea reframed the way I think about positioning for macro shifts.
It’s not about being “right.”
It’s about finding places where the odds are mispriced — and where the upside far outweighs the cost of being wrong.
That’s how Nate framed this trade.
And I’m glad he shared it.
We’re back to it with Jack Carter and Kane Shieh on Profit Panel today.
Register your spot here to join us next time we go live!
To Better Trading,
Alex Reid
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