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Tuesday, August 19th

“Some people hear their own inner voices with great clearness. And they live by what they hear. Such people become crazy… or they become legend.”

– Jim Harrison

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Markets Today

🌏 Asia-Pacific: Down

🇪🇺 Europe: Up

🇺🇸 United States: Down

🛢️ Oil: Down

⚡Crypto: Up

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The hottest trading month of the year?!

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Major Market Events 

• Intel stock surges after SoftBank takes $2B stake — Shares jumped following news of the investment and U.S. policy backing chipmakers
• Trump plans to get Putin and Zelensky talking — High-stakes diplomacy aims for end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
• Fed rate cuts and small-cap trade in focus — Investors await Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks with markets on edge for policy signals

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🤔 My Thoughts

Policy Theater vs. the 6,500 Magnet

Trade the incentive, not the press conference

I’m going to say the quiet part out loud: most policy headlines are theater. They make noise. They don’t pay you.

This morning the tape told the real story. The open was dead flat. When the market gives you a yawn like that, you don’t force hero trades. You read where incentives point next.

Right now the incentive is simple: there’s a big SPX 6,500 call wall up ahead, and NVIDIA earnings on August 27th is the event everyone’s orbiting.

That combo acts like a magnet. Dealers hedge. Funds window-dress. Price tends to drift toward the wall until something breaks the spell.

Meanwhile, the macro chatter shifts every hour. Odds for a rate cut were 94% last week, now they’re 83%, tomorrow they’ll be something else.

Does that change my plan? No. Because odds and speeches don’t tell me where positioning wants to take price… the call wall does.

Here’s how I trade a magnet like this:

• Don’t fight the drift. In a low-vol, flat open, I’m not trying to call a top. I let the market lean higher and take small swings on pullbacks that hold.
• Use simple guardrails. VWAP and recent highs/lows are enough. If a dip loses VWAP and can’t reclaim it fast, I stand down.
• Keep risk tight. One contract. Defined risk. Time stop. If it doesn’t move in a few candles, I’m gone.
• Respect the wall. As we push into round numbers or fresh highs, I take profits faster. Magnets can snap back. I don’t argue with a stall.
• Know the date. NVDA on the 27th is the gravity well. I’ll keep size modest heading into that and avoid swinging for fences.

Could we crack 6,500 early or get a headline rug pull? Absolutely.

That’s why I don’t marry a bias. I rent strength, collect cash when it’s offered, and reset. If the magnet fails, fine — I flip the script and trade what’s in front of me.

Bottom line: I don’t trade press releases. I trade incentives.

When the market pins a target like 6,500 and a major catalyst is on the calendar, the path of least resistance is usually the one that pays — until it doesn’t. That’s where the risk rules do the heavy lifting.

Want to see how we’re reading it today — with clear levels and simple, copy-and-paste setups?

Click here to watch the on-demand replay!

And don’t forget to register your spot here to join us next time we go live!

To Better Trading,

Alex Reid

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