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Thursday, September 11th

“We learn from history that we do not learn from history.”

– Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel

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Alex Reid’s #1 Momentum Tool Is Sitting At At 87% Success Rate… Here’s What It’s Pointing Him To Next!

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Major Market Events 

• Inflation rises to 2.9% — Hotter-than-expected August CPI keeps pressure on Fed rate cut hopes
• Stocks rise after CPI, jobs data — Markets rise despite sticky inflation and labor market weakness
• NATO scrambles on Russian drone raid — Alliance forces intercepted a heavy wave of drones over Poland

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🤔 My Thoughts

I Don’t Trade Headlines — I Trade Price

Oracle spiked on PPI. Here’s how I keep a clean read.

Yesterday morning, PPI hit the tape and Oracle ripped. That’s the type of morning that tempts traders into chasing green candles. I don’t. I let price prove it.

Here’s my plain-English map for headline days like that:

Step 1: Mark the map.
Before the open, I mark yesterday’s high/low and the premarket high/low. I add VWAP. That gives me a simple framework: where buyers already showed up, where sellers pushed back, and what “fair” looks like today.

Step 2: Let the first shove pass.
The first candle after a data print is a coin flip. I don’t need to win a coin flip. I wait for the move, then the test. If price blasts through a level and holds it on a retest, that’s a trade. If it spikes and fails, that’s noise.

Step 3: Use a small, defined-risk idea.
For a long, I like a tiny call debit spread near the money with a short date (days, not weeks). For a short, a tiny put debit spread. My risk is capped from the start, so I can focus on execution, not fear.

Step 4: Take base hits.
If I get 25–40% quickly, I pay myself. Headline moves fade fast. I’d rather reset than turn a quick win into a lecture.

Step 5: Respect VWAP.
Above VWAP with rising volume? I lean long on clean pullbacks. Lose VWAP and fail to reclaim? I stand down or look short, small size.

Why the discipline matters: headlines come and go. Price is the truth. On days like this, Oracle can explode while the index chops. That’s fine. I don’t trade the press release. I trade the behavior around my levels.

Bottom line: when a number hits, don’t guess. Let the chart tell you if the move has real buyers behind it. If it does, take the clean setup with tight risk. If it doesn’t, skip it and keep your capital ready for the next pitch.

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To Better Trading,

Alex Reid

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