Everyone’s Buying the Bitcoin Bounce but I’m Not Convinced

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Markets loved the State of the Union. Risk appetite came roaring in and the reaction was stronger than I expected.

Political events can fuel short-term momentum and this one clearly did. But when someone asked me about Bitcoin during my recent masterclass, my answer stayed the same: I’m still bearish.

The bounce looks clean and the structure has support, but those things alone don’t change my stance. The reasons I turned cautious in the first place are still there, so I’m not flipping just because price pumped for a day.

What the Options Flow Is Telling Me

I don’t trade on gut. I look for confirmation and right now the options market isn’t giving me any reason to shift.

There’s still a steady wave of iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) puts coming in — more puts than calls — and that imbalance matters. When you see sustained downside positioning in a product tied directly to Bitcoin, it shows sentiment under the surface isn’t nearly as bullish as the candles make it look.

Yes, there are structural things on Bitcoin that could mark a bottom and I’m open to that possibility. But structure isn’t follow-through.

Until we see closes that hold and flow that flips, I’m staying with the bearish bias.

How I’m Handling It

I still think Bitcoin heads lower from here, but I also know I could be wrong. I’ve been wrong before and that’s exactly why I size carefully and manage my trades with levels that matter.

If the data shifts, I’m ready to shift with it — not out of emotion but because the market earned the adjustment.

That’s the entire approach: Stay biased, stay disciplined and stay flexible. The options flow leans one way, price action hints another and my job is to weigh both without getting caught chasing a one-day reaction.

If you’re trading crypto right now, keep your eyes on the flow and the structure. Let the market prove the bounce is real — or not.

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To better trading,

Alex Reid
WealthPin

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