We’re trading the FOMC volatility live! Join us as we decide if HOOD’s 15% post-earnings drop is a buying opportunity or a trap. Plus, we’re prepping for the after-hours moves from META, AMZN, and MSFT — see if we’re playing the initial spike or waiting for the “real” move tomorrow — Profit Panel starts at 2:30 PM ET
This week brings two major earnings catalysts, with Microsoft (MSFT) reporting after the bell today and Meta Platforms (META) following right alongside in this same tech earnings window.
Both will shape the tone for tech, but I am approaching them very differently depending on structure, positioning and capital allocation trends.
Microsoft: A Breakdown Below Key Support With A Still-Intact Long Thesis
I’m long MSFT into earnings because the broader story still works, even if the technical picture has gotten messier short term.
Price is trading around $425, which puts it below the 200-day moving average at $448.82. That is important because it flips the short-term structure from supportive trend alignment to a pullback phase.
Even so, I am not abandoning the thesis.
We already saw a key technical inflection when price lost the 200-day, but the broader setup still leans on fundamentals that have not broken down. Azure growth recently hit 39%, which continues to show strong enterprise demand even in a more volatile tape.
From a structure standpoint, my longer-term target still sits near $480, anchored off the January highs. That remains the reference level if earnings re-accelerate sentiment back into leadership mode.
What I will be watching most closely in MSFT tonight is whether Azure momentum holds, whether AI-related capex efficiency improves margins, and whether forward guidance can re-anchor price back above the 200-day.
If those stay intact, the long thesis survives even this pullback phase.
Meta: Strong Price Action, But Spending Risk Is Getting Harder To Ignore
META is in a very different position.
The stock is trading around $670, still above its 200-day moving average at $648.51, which technically keeps the trend structure intact.
But the real story is not price — it is spending.
Meta’s 2026 capex guidance is now $115B to $135B, and that scale of investment continues to raise questions about return timing and capital efficiency. Reality Labs alone posted $19.19 billion in losses for 2025, which keeps pressure on the long-term ROI narrative.
Yes, the core ad business is still extremely strong. Meta continues to run one of the most efficient monetization engines in tech, and AI-driven ad tools are clearly improving advertiser performance.
But the market is no longer rewarding growth at any cost the same way it used to.
For META tonight, I will be focused on capex trajectory, Reality Labs losses, AI monetization progress, margin expansion versus compression risk, and forward free cash flow guidance.
At $671, expectations are high. And when expectations are high, execution matters more than storytelling.
The Split Decision
So here is the clean split going into earnings.
Microsoft is a technically weaker chart but still anchored by strong enterprise and AI demand trends that could reassert themselves on guidance.
Meta is a technically stronger chart sitting above key levels, but with a spending profile that is starting to stretch investor patience.
That is why I am long MSFT and cautious on META — not because of headlines, but because of how the math, structure and expectations line up into this earnings cycle.
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To better trading,
Alex Reid
WealthPin
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P.S. A New Discovery Is Taking the Market by Storm
Geof Smith made a pretty interesting discovery recently…
There’s been what seemed like a built-in market force that compelled stocks to rip higher right at the opening bell.
Apparently, it’s caused by Wall Street’s “flash shorts” being forced to buy back shares to lock in profits…
Creating a massive tidal wave of capital that pushes particular stocks higher all morning long.
Now Geof found a way to spot where those individual orders were heading and tap into them for a shot at double, even triple-digit payouts.
He calls this phenomenon 10-Minute Moonshots.
And it turns out you didn’t need a special account to tap in…
All you need is to know the exact stock(s) being “pumped” each morning and jump in right as soon as the 10-Minute window opens.
Now I can’t make trading guarantees here,
But how would you like to learn exactly how to tap into the cash window every single morning?
That would set you on a path to permanently targeting cash from the market…
Or at least for as long as our financial system stays unchanged.
If you’d like that…
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability but no one can guarantee the future. The profits and performance shown are not typical to any one individual and you may lose money. The trades shown are from historical data in order to demonstrate the potential of the system..
