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I wanted to talk about something I’ve been kicking around — agricultural stocks. Today I’m taking a closer look at them because they may be setting up the same way energy did earlier this year.
Basically every position I have that’s working is oil and everything else isn’t working. That alone makes me pay attention when another commodity-linked sector starts to show life.
I don’t have any positions yet. I’ll admit it: I wish I’d taken some earlier. But the setup is still there and maybe we’re not too late to catch this move.
The same macro force pushing energy higher — conflict-driven supply chain disruptions — is now starting to pull agriculture along with it. When trade routes tighten and stress builds, food prices rarely sit still.
The companies producing the inputs — fertilizer, processing, distribution — tend to feel that pressure first. Names like Alto Ingredients (ALTO) and Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) fit that category.
They’re not flashy, but they are the backbone of the food supply chain. When that chain gets squeezed these stocks can move.
Checking the Pricing on ADM
I took a closer look at ADM after spotting some interesting activity. My first question is always the same: Is the pricing reasonable or am I chasing?
If you’re looking at this week’s March 20 expiration, the premium on the $75 calls has now collapsed into roughly the $0.30 to $0.40 range with ADM trading around $70.60.
That makes it less of a conviction trade and more of a deeply discounted lottery-ticket setup unless you’re stepping out to June, where the premium still holds more structure.
The thesis itself is pretty simple. Conflict disrupts supply. Disruption pushes commodities higher. Companies tied directly to those commodities — just like energy — can benefit when the market prices in sustained pressure.
But pricing alone isn’t enough for me. I want a solid catalyst behind the move, not just fear-driven pops that evaporate once the headlines cool off.
Why I Haven’t Pulled the Trigger Yet
I see the setup and I get the macro argument, but I’m not rushing into a position for the sake of it. I want more clarity that agricultural supply pressure is real and not just a temporary spike.
ALTO is actually helping make that case today. After pushing to $4.66, it’s pulling back toward $4.40, and honestly that’s the kind of healthy consolidation I wanted to see before forcing an entry.
Food input stocks have the potential to follow the same pattern energy followed, but I need to see follow-through — real stress, real pricing power, real demand.
If that shows up, ADM and similar names could become the next stage of the conflict trade. For now, they’re on the watchlist, and if the pieces line up that could change fast.
P.S. Something big is coming this weekend, and I’m keeping the details under lock and key for our active members only…
I’m walking through a new way to forecast the next move before the market even opens the next day. Check your member portal here immediately for the private invite.
To better trading,
Alex Reid
WealthPin
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