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Thursday, September 4th
“It’s going to be September now
for many years to come,
many hearts adjusting to
that strict September drum.
I see the ghost of culture with numbers on his wrist
salute some new conclusion that all of us have missed.
So let’s drink to when it’s over,
and let’s drink to when we meet.
I’ll be waiting on this corner
where there used to be a street.”
– Leonard Cohen
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Markets Today
🌏 Asia-Pacific: Mixed
🇪🇺 Europe: Up
🇺🇸 United States: Up
🛢️ Oil: Down
⚡ Crypto: Down
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[BREAKING] This 87% Accurate Indicator
Just Started Flashing Again!
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Major Market Events
- Trump’s Fed nominee faces Senate grilling — Lawmakers weigh Trump’s push for influence over the central bank as Stephen Miran testifies
- ADP data signals cooling jobs market — Private payrolls came in weaker than expected, adding to pressure on the Fed ahead of Friday’s report
- Tariff fight heads to Supreme Court — Administration seeks fast-track review of trade case, raising stakes for global markets
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🤔 My Thoughts
One Number To Check Before You Trade
A simple way to size the day (no crystal ball needed)
Yesterday on Profit Panel, Chris Pulver walked through a dead-simple way to set expectations before the bell. But he’s not out there trying to make a prediction.
It’s a speed limit for the market — and it helps him keep targets, stops, and risk sane.
Here’s the breakdown in plain English:
Start with the VIX ÷ 16.
VIX is the market’s 30-day volatility gauge. Divide it by 16 to get a rough estimate of a “typical” one-day move (in percent).
- If VIX is ~16, plan around ~1% daily swings. (16 divided by 16 = 1)
- If VIX is ~24, plan around ~1.5%. (24 divided by 16 = 1.5)
This simple calculation keeps you from expecting a 3% marathon on a 1% day — and from setting targets or stops that don’t fit the market that day.
Then check VIX1D vs. VIX.
Chris also flagged VIX1D (the one-day version). When VIX1D pops above the standard VIX, it’s a sign the market expects extra chop today.
That’s usually when selling premium — with defined risk and small size — can make sense. It doesn’t mean “sell everything.” It means the market may pay you more for being the house, not the hero.
How to use it:
- Set expectations first. If the “speed limit” says ~1%, shape targets and stops inside that range.
- Favor base hits. Tighten your goals on slow days; widen them a bit when volatility expands.
- Mind your size. Headlines can hijack the a trading day. Keep trades small so a surprise doesn’t wreck your plan.
- Let levels confirm. Wait for a “price shelf” to hold (or fail) before acting. No guessing.
- If selling premium, define risk. Credit spreads or calendar spreads beat naked bravado. Know your max loss up front.
Why this matters
Most traders get chopped up by mismatched expectations.
They shoot for home runs on a day where singles are much more likely…
Or they place stops where the tape naturally breathes. A simple VIX divided by 16 check — plus a quick look at VIX1D vs. VIX — keeps you honest about what the market is likely to do today.
Click here to watch the on-demand replay!
And don’t forget to register your spot here to join us next time we go live!
To Better Trading,
Alex Reid
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