The Most Expensive Guessing Game on Earth

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Friday, August 1st

“Everything great in the world is done by neurotics; they alone founded our religions and created our masterpieces.”

– Marcel Proust

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Markets Today

🌏 Asia-Pacific: Down

🇪🇺 Europe: Down

🇺🇸 United States: Up

🛢️ Oil: Down

Crypto: Up

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Could this be the most powerful “BUY” signal available?

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Major Market Events 

  • Jobs report disappoints with just 73,000 new hires — Slower summer hiring and downward revisions spark fresh concerns about labor market fragility
  • Trump tariff blitz rattles markets — Broad tariff hikes on U.S. trading partners and delayed implementation drive major indexes lower
  • Pharma stocks shrug off drug-price letters — Industry largely unfazed by White House warnings, citing modest risk from pricing measures

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🤔 My Thoughts

The Most Expensive Guessing Game on Earth

Wall Street Missed by $3 Billion?!

The earnings reports from Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) were… wild.

Meta crushed it. Microsoft crushed it. And yet somehow — somehow — every single Wall Street analyst missed it by a mile.

We’re not talking about a slight miss, either. We’re talking a $3 billion difference.

As Jack put it on the show today:

“You’re making a couple hundred… 300,000 a year, and you can’t get anything right.”

And honestly, it’s hard to argue. Meta and Microsoft didn’t just beat — they obliterated expectations.

The market went nuts in the after hours. And if you were positioned right, there was real money to be made.

So how did the analysts miss something so obvious?

Jack thinks it’s pure incompetence:

“These guys… they’re missing all the time. And I just don’t understand how that could even be… Wall Street’s doing a terrible job.”

I don’t always go as far as Jack does, but I’ll say this: if you’re still relying on analyst forecasts to make your decisions, you’re playing a dangerous game. The real edge is elsewhere.

But Jack wasn’t just complaining. He dropped a solid tip in the form of a hot stock that wasn’t getting all the AI hype.

“Allstate (ALL) got the biggest move of the day.”

“That thing popped and stayed.”
“I’m long Allstate too, in the dividend portfolio… full disclosure.”

It wasn’t a tech darling. But it ripped higher — 6.4% in one session — and cleared major resistance.

Jack’s takeaway?

“When you get a big jump like that in one day, that’s abnormal… that’s your sell signal. Take your profit.”

Whether you’re in Allstate or not, that’s a lesson worth remembering:

The market hands out gifts — but it doesn’t always give you time to think about them.

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To Better Trading,

Alex Reid

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