🚨 I’ll be live at with Geof at 2:30 p.m. ET🚨
We’ll cover the specific market flows I’m tracking as stocks rally on headlines of a potential end to the Iran war, a recap of recent top-performing setups, Geof’s strategy for trading gold ahead of next month’s Fed meeting under new Fed Chair Warsh and more [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
I went to bed recently feeling pretty good about the day’s session. The S&P 500 (SPX) was pumped, the market looked strong, and I was expecting a nice follow-through into the open.
Then I woke up the next morning and made the mistake of checking CNBC before checking the tape. The first thing I saw was: “America does defensive strikes on Iranian positions.” My first reaction was simple: Oh, come on.
But here’s what happened next — and why it matters more than the headline. I looked up at the CNBC ticker bar and SPX was still firmly in the green. It was up roughly 60 points or so.
That’s when the real story clicked for me. And it wasn’t just equities sending that message. Commodities were backing it up too.
Crude oil was basically flat, gasoline was getting hammered, and gold and silver couldn’t catch a bid.
Everyone assumes crude should explode higher on geopolitical headlines, but the actual price action completely ignored the narrative. Gasoline even sold off sharply.
When multiple markets refuse to play along with a dramatic headline, that’s not noise — that’s information.
The Market Didn’t Care About the Strikes
My interpretation is simple: The market didn’t care about those strikes. The real message is that traders believe this situation is likely to be resolved relatively soon.
This is exactly the point I try to hammer home on the Profit Panel every single day. Let the market tell you what matters, not the headline.
If that news had genuinely rattled institutional money, SPX would have sold off. We would have seen real fear show up in the tape. Instead, the market stayed strong.
That’s your signal.
And sometimes the headlines aren’t just misleading — they’re flat-out wrong. I saw one report calling for Brent crude to stay above $100 for the next three years. Meanwhile, Brent wasn’t even trading above $100.
That’s why I always check the tape first. Price doesn’t lie, but headlines often do.
The Market Is Building Antibodies
Here’s another thing I’ve noticed lately. During the peak of the Trump-Iran news cycle, markets were getting dumped and pumped based on whatever headline appeared that day.
It made structural trading strategies much harder to execute because every few hours another news event would create a whipsaw.
But the market is developing antibodies to that cycle. It’s becoming more resistant. The headlines are still there, and yes, they’re still coming.
But the reactions are beginning to fade. The market is learning to price in the pattern rather than the individual announcement. Structure continues to hold unless you’re dealing with true tail risk.
Over the long run, structure wins. When the broader framework remains intact, the close tells you far more than any midday shockwave.
That’s also why institutional traders don’t chase these moves. They don’t buy at the highs after a headline spike. They wait for pullbacks, let price come back to them, and accumulate shares where they already have resting orders.
Headline chasers are playing a completely different game — and usually the wrong one.
For traders dealing with FOMO, there’s a practical solution. If you’re feeling the urge to jump in, buy a very small position to satisfy the emotion. Then let the stock come back to a real setup.
Let it consolidate. Let it build structure. That’s where you can consider adding size.
Patience almost always pays because confirmation improves probability. High-flying stocks especially require that patience. Watch them closely, look for setups that break prior highs, and let the move come to you instead of reacting to the first pop.
That discipline compounds far more reliably than headline-driven trading.
The more experience you gain, the more you’ll recognize the same lesson. The market rewards traders who follow structure, not stories. Patterns matter, price matters, and the close matters.
Chasing the latest dramatic headline usually creates nothing more than unnecessary churn.
To better trading,
Alex Reid
WealthPin
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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