The Government Shutdown Nothingburger

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Thursday, October 2nd

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“If men had postponed the search for knowledge and beauty until they were secure, the search would never have begun.”

– C.S. Lewis

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Major Market Events

Tesla deliveries jump into tax-credit deadline — Record Q3 sales spark fresh debate on margins and EV demand into year-end
Shutdown overhang pulls at risk appetite — Markets track Washington standoff and potential cuts as agencies brace for impacts
OpenAI’s private share sale lifts valuation — New round pegs AI leader near ~$600B, underscoring ongoing funding momentum

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🤔 My Thoughts

The Government Shutdown Nothingburger

Markets Didn’t Change. Neither Does My Weekly Play.

The government shutdown hit yesterday — and still the market printed new highs. That’s a nothingburger for my process. And since yesterday was Credit-Spread Wednesday, I just followed through with the same trade I always place.

As always, I keep position size sensible, carry a little cash when headlines are loud, and let the daily close make the call.

Credit-Spread Wednesday: My Plain-English Theta Lesson

On Profit Panel, I walked through why I like credit spreads and what “theta” really means in simple terms.

Theta is the time decay baked into options. Every option you buy or sell is affected by theta — by time passing.

For options buyers, time is working against you. If the underlying stock price doesn’t move far enough, fast enough, the option loses value just because time is passing.

And even if the underlying stock price stays steady, you’ll notice the options lose value as time passes. That’s theta in action.

But for options sellers, it’s just the opposite: Time is often your helper — so long as price stays in your chosen range.

My Simple Approach (Step-By-Step)

Pick sturdy names with good trading volume and tight bid/ask spreads.
Choose a line in the sand on the chart — a support level you believe price can stay above through expiration
Sell a put spread below that level (or a call spread above a clear ceiling) so three things can help you:
- If price stays above your short put strike (or below your short call strike), you win.
- If price drifts sideways, time decay helps you.
- Even a small move against you — price drifting down towards the put you sold — can still be okay as long as it doesn’t cross your short strike by expiration.
Keep risk known up front. Your max loss is the distance between the strikes minus the credit you collect. ($1.00 between strikes minus 12¢ credit = 88¢ max loss)
Size small. I place spreads so a worst-case loss wouldn’t be the end of the world.
Manage by the clock. If I can buy the spread back for about half the credit, I often just ring the register and move on. If the chart breaks my line in the sand on a daily close, I reduce or exit — no “hope trades.”

When you come right down to it, headlines come and go. My Wednesday credit spread playbook doesn’t.

A small, well-placed credit spread lets time do part of the work while I wait for the close to confirm.

By the way, I place the trade Wednesdays for Friday expiration because with just 2 days left to expiration, theta — that time decay I mentioned — really works in your favor as a seller.