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Tuesday, September 2nd

“We live only by knowing something about the future; we live only by the imagination of what is about to happen next.”

– Hannah Arendt

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Markets Today

🌏 Asia-Pacific: Down

🇪🇺 Europe: Down

🇺🇸 United States: Down

🛢️ Oil: Up

⚡ Crypto: Mixed

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Get a load of these “Big, Beautiful Stocks!”

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Major Market Events 

• Stocks sink on Fed uncertainty — Wall Street falls sharply as traders brace for jobs data and tariff fallout
• Elliott pushes $4B PepsiCo stake — Activist investor sees potential for shares to climb 50% with turnaround plan
• Kraft Heinz to split into two — Packaged-food giant separates grocery and condiments units after years of weak demand

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🤔 My Thoughts

The $800 Free Pass Is Ending. Here’s My Plan.

How I’ll trade ETSY/SHOP with tight risk

Most folks missed this one while they were packing coolers for the long weekend: the de minimis exemption is being removed.

That’s the rule that lets overseas goods valued under $800 make it into the country with no customs duty.

On Friday’s Profit Panel, we called it out in plain English: “that de minimis exemption is being removed… That’s going away.” And the tape told the story: “Etsy’s tanking, man.”

What does this mean? If overseas sellers start paying duties, some prices go up, some shipping slows, and a few business models get squeezed.

That pressure can leak into tickers like ETSY and SHOP. But around here, we don’t panic, we make a plan.

My simple plan

If we bounce into resistance:
I’ll look at a small, defined-risk bear put spread. Example idea: buy a near-the-money put and sell a lower-strike put in the same expiration 2–4 weeks out.

That lets me express “relief rally fades” without taking open-ended risk. If price rolls over, the spread expands. If it keeps climbing and reclaims my level, I’m out. Small debit, small stress.

If we gap down into demand:

I stand down on new shorts. If I want exposure, I consider a tiny cash-secured naked put only at a price where I truly want shares. If price never tags that level, I keep the premium. If I’m assigned, I own a starter at a discount and can sell covered calls on a bounce.

If the tape is just choppy:
No trade is fine. I’ll wait for a clean push into a level, then act. Base hits over hero calls.

These rules keep me calm

• Tiny size. One spread or one put.
• Quick payout. If I’m up about 25 to 35% on the spread, I close it out.
• Hard line. If price reclaims the level that negates my idea, I’m flat. No debate.

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To Better Trading,

Alex Reid

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