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I made a move last week that might look a little reckless at first glance. I put roughly $1,000 into AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) calls.
That is real money, and yes, it will sting if this trade goes wrong. But I have watched this stock long enough to recognize the pattern.
They struggle with launches, sentiment drops, everyone panics, then the stock snaps right back. It has happened enough times that I am willing to take the shot again.
ASTS keeps missing on these launches, and at some point the market patience could run out. Still, the reaction pattern has been consistent.
A sharp sell-off tends to follow weakness, then a rebound erases a large part of the damage. That repeatability is what I am trading here.
This was not a perfect entry. The stock dipped after I entered, then recovered. But the setup still made sense.
The Call Flow That Convinced Me
The options activity in ASTS was heavily tilted toward calls. About 33,000 contracts hit the call side across multiple expirations, while puts were minimal.
That kind of imbalance does not happen randomly.
This is not just ASTS either. I am seeing strong call activity in other names like Palantir (PLTR), where roughly 40,000 contracts traded on the call side, and Ondas Holdings (ONDS), which has also seen a surge in call demand.
There is a clear appetite for upside in smaller, high beta names.
For ASTS specifically, I went with July 17 calls because I wanted time for the trade to develop. This stock can move quickly, so I did not want something too tight.
Shorter dated contracts like July 2 or June 5 were also available at lower prices, offering faster exposure but less time.
A spread would have been another way to control risk. I did not use one this time because conviction was high, but it is a valid structure for managing downside.
The flow lined up, the pattern was there and the risk made sense even with the $1,000 position.
The Catalyst I’m Watching
The key catalyst is the SpaceX IPO. It is roughly one to two weeks away, and that event could lift the entire space sector.
IPOs usually spike and fade. That is the typical pattern. But SpaceX is not a typical company.
It generates real revenue and has become a major force in the industry, which is why this IPO could behave differently.
Instead of draining liquidity from the sector, it could lift related names through sympathy trading.
ASTS sits directly in the space communications niche, which puts it in position to benefit if the sector heats up.
I am already sitting on a strong gain in Redwire (RDW), up roughly 470%, and I plan to exit before the IPO hits.
The trade carries risk, but the setup, flow and catalyst are aligned. And if ASTS repeats its past pattern of post-failure rebounds, this could be a meaningful move.
Trade better,
Alex Reid
WealthPin
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