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Wednesday, October 1st
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“The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it.”
– Flannery O’Connor
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Waiting too long for dividends each quarter?
Here’s a 10-minute plan for a shot at “weekly dividends!”
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Major Market Events
- Government Shutdown Hits — Lawmakers failed to reach a budget deal, triggering a federal shutdown, potential furloughs and potential mass layoffs
- Jobs Data Weakens — The ADP report showed private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, underscoring labor market deterioration
- Markets React to Shutdown — U.S. stocks slipped as investors weighed shutdown risks, while gold hit new highs above $3,900
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🤔 My Thoughts
Moving Averages in Plain English
Plus, the shutdown is here!
The government shutdown is official this morning. Headlines will fly.
My plan doesn’t change: I don’t trade the noise. I let the daily close tell me what the market has actually priced in.
Now to something you can use today: moving averages. I walked through this on yesterday’s Profit Panel because it’s the cleanest way I know to separate an actual trend from market chatter — especially on noisy days like this.
What they are: a moving average is just the average closing price over a set number of days. I keep 20 (short/medium rhythm) and 200 (big trend) on every chart.
If you want more detail, I’ll also track 9, 50, and 100 — but 20 and 200 do most of the work.
How I Read Them
- Below the 200-day isn’t bullish. I want a close back above that line before I even think about an “uptrend.”
- Midday pokes mean little. I only act after the close — not on the first bounce I see at lunchtime.
- If we close above a line I care about and hold it the next day, I’ll start small. If we lose it again, I cut and move on. No drama.
As I was discussing this on yesterday’s show, Geof Smith chimed in with a useful bit of info.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) weight recent days more, so signals can come faster than with Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
He also shared a quick Bollinger Band check: when price reclaims the middle band on a short timeframe, it often tests the upper band next — handy for spotting follow-through after a wobble.
A 3-Step Checklist You Can Copy Today:
- Put 20 and 200 moving average on your chart (you can pick SMA or EMA)
- Mark where we closed yesterday relative to those lines.
- Wait for today’s close. If we finish back above a key line, consider a small starter; if not, keep your powder dry and keep checking back.
Moving averages are your guardrails. Above a key line = offense is possible. Below it = be careful. And don’t let midday pops fool you. Let the daily close make the call.
Click here to watch the on-demand replay!
And don’t forget to register your spot here to join us next time we go live!
To Better Trading,
Alex Reid
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