Why History Says Your Iran Strategy Will Fail
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We’re digesting the weekend news to map out what’s moving the market this week. Earnings season is officially back, and we’re kicking off with the big financials — I’m giving away my secret watchlist to show you exactly what I’m trading. Plus, Geof is dropping by with an update on oil, gas, and his upcoming Silver strategy [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
I’ve got to share something with you today that might seem like it’s coming out of left field, but stick with me — this matters for your money.
I’m a history guy. Always have been. And if you know me, you know World War I is my favorite historical period.
Not because I love war — but because it teaches the clearest lesson I know about what happens when smart people make catastrophically wrong assumptions.
In 1913, Europe had a system that had basically been in place since the fall of the Roman Empire. Twelve months later? Everything changed for the entire world. That entire old system was obliterated in just five years.
Here’s the kicker: The leaders in 1914 didn’t know this would happen. They thought they’d have a short little war. They believed they were in control. They weren’t.
Why This Matters for Your Trading Right Now
So what does a century-old European conflict have to do with your portfolio today? Everything.
The problem with going kinetic in conflicts is you never know how it’s going to play out.
You can think some political leader is playing “four-dimensional chess” and can back out whenever they want, and I hope to God that’s true. But history tells us you never know.
The moment real escalation starts, all those neat plans fall apart. That’s the real risk traders forget.
You can have smart leaders and clear economic motivations — wanting low gas prices before midterms, wanting stability and wanting predictability. But once bullets fly and people die, the script gets thrown out.
Rational actors stop acting rationally. Predictable outcomes become impossible to predict.
The Trading Takeaway You Can Use Today
This isn’t about politics. This is about risk management.
When I look at 1913 versus 1914, I see people sleepwalking into the destruction of the entire European continent — people who thought they understood the game they were playing. They didn’t.
And the same dynamic shows up whenever conflicts escalate. Once blood is shed, it’s often far harder to control the situation than anyone expects, and you can get pulled down the drain before you even realize what’s happening.
So when you’re building your positions today, ask yourself: Am I betting on rational outcomes in a situation that could go kinetic? Am I assuming leaders will maintain control once things escalate?
Because if World War I teaches us anything, it’s that once conflict moves from words to weapons, even the people in charge don’t know how it’s going to play out.
Maybe rates go down. Maybe we do get out of Iran. You’d think that makes sense.
But hoping the market will behave rationally when geopolitics go kinetic? That’s not a trade — that’s a prayer.
Keep your positions sized so you can survive being wrong. Keep your risk defined. And remember: The leaders in 1914 were sure they had it under control too.
P.S. Want to see what my brand-new scanner is flagging before it goes public? Tap here to join Ezra’s Telegram channel for free and catch the next live signal in real-time.
To better trading,
Alex Reid
WealthPin
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Profit Panel at 9:30AM: 3 Stocks I’m Trading This Week
Things are taking an entirely different turn inside Profit Panel this morning.
Today, we’re not going to be talking about some opportunity that’s coming in a few days.
The cash window I’m about to show you now will probably close after today.
And traders who miss out could be caught in the July Trap!
With inflation numbers hitting the tape early enough tomorrow, and Fed Chair Warsh testifying before Congress right after, we’re in for the kind of volatility that should send stocks soaring.
No trading guarantees, of course…
But I’ve zeroed in on the three names most primed to blast off as soon as the trigger sets.
So if you’d like front-row seats to my entire game plan…