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Ezra breaks down his FOMC positioning ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision, how rising rate hike odds are hitting bond markets, and what MSFT and META capex means for tech [tap to join us for Profit Panel]

 

Here’s a tactical rule I’m following today, and it might sound a little stark — but the stakes are too high to ignore.

I’m planning to exit all positions by Wednesday’s close. Whether that’s something steady like Walmart (WMT) or PepsiCo (PEP), a smaller ticker like FuelCell Energy (FCEL) or a high-beta technology play, I want to be out before the opening bell on Thursday.

The reason is simple: Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) report Wednesday night, followed by Apple (AAPL) on Thursday morning.

That’s trillions of dollars in market capitalization preparing to move — and those moves rarely stay contained within three stocks.

Why These Earnings Can Move Everything

These companies carry enormous weight in major market indexes, influence investor sentiment and help set expectations for technology spending, consumer demand and the broader economy.

If their results or guidance disappoint, selling can spread quickly into sectors that seem unrelated. Traders reduce risk, algorithms respond and suddenly the market is saying, “Bye-bye, don’t want you,” to positions across the board.

Maybe the reports come in strong and lift the whole market. Maybe they disappoint and drag everything down. I don’t know which way it goes.

What I do know is the impact could be massive, and I’d rather watch it happen from the sidelines than get caught holding through it.

Prediction markets, options pricing and other sentiment tools can help estimate what traders expect before the announcements.

They’re useful for identifying crowded expectations, implied volatility and where the biggest surprise risk may sit. But even the best predictive tools provide probabilities, not certainty.

They can sharpen a plan — they can’t eliminate event risk.

A Compressed Trading Window

This left a narrow window for the week. You really had to look at a day trade Monday or an overnight trade into Tuesday at the latest.

If something attractive catches a bid, you can play it — but I wouldn’t hold it through Wednesday night.

Honestly, I’d probably exit any trade by Wednesday, including the steadier names.

This isn’t about declaring that WMT and AAPL carry the same risk. It’s about recognizing that a broad shift in market sentiment can affect both when investors rush to reduce exposure.

You can’t predict what MSFT, META or AAPL will say, but you can decide whether you want exposure when they do.

I’m choosing not to. If Wednesday’s close looks clean and Thursday opens calmly, I can always re-enter.

So that’s my line. Wednesday night. Out before the thunder rolls in.

To better trading,

Alex Reid
WealthPin

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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

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