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The market keeps getting slammed. That’s the cleanest way to put it.

We’ve been dealing with one exogenous shock after another. First, it was tariffs, then the threat of war with Iran.

Now bond vigilantes are back, yields are blowing out and Federal Reserve officials are signaling they could raise rates if necessary.

The bond market may be forcing a broader reevaluation. History shows that when yields remain elevated, borrowing costs rise, valuations come under pressure and even a strong bull market can struggle.

Unless bonds settle down, it’s going to be tough for stocks to find durable footing.

The Shocks Keep Layering

What makes this stretch particularly difficult is that these aren’t isolated hits. They’re compounding.

You deal with one headline, adjust your positioning and then something entirely different comes at you from the side.

Oil adds another layer. Geopolitical disruptions can push crude prices higher, while refining constraints and other logistical bottlenecks can amplify the effect on fuel costs.

That flows through to transportation, manufacturing and consumer prices — exactly the kind of inflation pressure that can keep rates higher for longer.

That’s why this isn’t just about tariffs, Iran, bonds or the Federal Reserve on their own. It’s about how those forces interact.

Higher energy costs can complicate the inflation picture, rising yields can squeeze valuations and hawkish policy signals can further weaken risk appetite.

I watch market flows every day, and here’s the candid truth: Big money hasn’t had all the answers either.

Over the past week or two, major players have repeatedly been caught leaning the wrong way. If institutions are struggling to read this tape, individual traders shouldn’t feel compelled to predict every move.

What I’m Doing Right Now

I’ll be blunt: Everybody is trying to find their footing. That includes me.

This isn’t the kind of market where I want to press hard or try to be a hero.

When shocks keep stacking and clarity is low, my playbook gets simpler. Trade smaller. Manage risk more tightly.

Don’t chase the first bounce just because you want relief. Let the market prove it can hold a level before adding exposure.

If you’ve been feeling whipsawed or uncertain, don’t kick yourself. The right response isn’t to force trades — it’s to stay disciplined, define your risk and wait for better setups.

We’re navigating this together, and I’ll keep walking through what I’m watching and how I’m managing it.

To better trading,

Alex Reid
WealthPin

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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

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The September Effect is real, my friend, and if you’re not careful, your trading account could take a hit.

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We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. From July 2025 through August 2026 the win rate was 81% with a 51.86% average winner and 26.16% average net return of winners and losers over a 2 day average hold time.