A simple way to spot the first good trade

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Tuesday, August 13th

“Learn what is to be taken seriously and laugh at the rest.”

– Herman Hesse

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Markets Today

🌏 Asia-Pacific: Up

🇪🇺 Europe: Mixed

🇺🇸 United States: Up

🛢️ Oil: Down

Crypto: Mixed

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The #1 income tool to get you through the slow summer

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Major Market Events 

  • Inflation steady at 2.7% — CPI met forecasts; firmer core clouds cut hopes as stocks edge up
  • Nvidia navigates China curbs — CEO Huang brokers path to sell chips after White House talks
  • BLS shake‑up ahead — Trump taps agency critic, raising stakes for how economic data gets made

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🤔 My Thoughts

A simple way to spot the first good trade

My Quick Plan for the Opening Hour

Most mornings start the same way for me. I don’t try to predict the whole day. I just want the first good read.

Here’s the plan I use when the market feels jumpy or stuck.

Step 1: Mark the lines.
I put the 9-EMA and 20-EMA on my chart. I also turn on VWAP. Think of the 9 as “fast,” the 20 as “slow,” and VWAP as “fair price today.”

Step 2: Let price come to me.
If we open near VWAP and the 9 is above the 20, I look for a quick long. If the 9 is under the 20, I lean short. No cross, no trade. I wait.

Step 3: Take the first clean touch.
I want price to “tap” the 9 or VWAP and bounce with volume. I keep stops tight. If we slice through the line and hold below it for a couple of minutes, I’m out.

Step 4: Get paid and get flat.
First target is small. I like base hits. If we push to the morning range high (or low, for shorts), I scale out. If momentum fades, I take what the market gives and reset.

Step 5: Avoid the chop trap.
If the 9 and 20 are braided together and price is whipsawing VWAP, I stand down. Bored money makes for bad trades. Remember that “no trade” is also a position.

Why this works for me
It’s simple. It forces me to wait for a real signal. It keeps losses small and wins frequent. And it gives me a plan even when the news is loud.

If you’re new to this, try it on SPY with tiny size. One contract. One clean setup. Then close the chart and call it a win.

We’re back at it today with more smart, under-the-radar ideas and easy-to-follow setups.

Click here to watch the on-demand replay!

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To Better Trading,

Alex Reid

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