🚨 I’ll be live at 2:30 p.m. ET with Geof Smith🚨
We’ll cover the WTI-Brent price inversion, rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the risks of holding long positions into a 3-day weekend and more [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
Sometimes the best trades aren’t the obvious ones. While most traders focus on headline indexes, I’ve been watching something simpler — and potentially more explosive.
Airlines, specifically U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS).
Here’s the setup: If tensions with Iran ease — and there are indications that could happen — the impact flows directly into airline fundamentals.
A more open Strait of Hormuz implies lower oil prices, and lower oil means reduced fuel costs for carriers. JETS has already shown relative strength during recent market moves, suggesting the base is in place. Now it’s about the catalyst.
The Event-Driven Thesis
This isn’t a long-term hold — it’s an event-driven trade tied to a specific catalyst.
The logic is straightforward: If geopolitical tensions ease, airline stocks can move higher on expectations of lower fuel costs. Fuel is one of the largest expenses for airlines, so any shift in oil pricing can quickly reprice the sector.
At the same time, the broader market remains volatile. Intraday reversals, shifting sentiment, and headline risk create an environment where positioning ahead of events matters more than reacting after them.
This setup focuses on using options on JETS to define risk while maintaining exposure to a potential upside move driven by news flow.
How I’d Structure It
This is a directional trade, not a hedged structure. It’s a higher-risk, catalyst-driven position where the outcome depends on timing.
Position sizing is critical. Keep exposure small enough that a missed catalyst doesn’t impact your overall portfolio.
Have a clear plan: If the announcement hits and JETS moves higher, take profits quickly. If it doesn’t materialize, exit without hesitation.
The advantage of this type of trade is clarity. The catalyst is known, the outcome scenarios are defined, and the timeline is relatively tight. You’re not guessing — you’re positioning around a specific event in a market that is already highly reactive.
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To better trading,
Alex Reid
WealthPin
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
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